NBER study: AI has not yet raised unemployment among recent college graduates
A new NBER study finds that the unemployment rate of recent college graduates did not jump after the arrival of AI, several outlets reported on 28 September. The researchers compared them with young people without a degree and with college graduates aged 30–49.
Who is affected and how
- early-career professional
- The data suggest that early-career workers' weaker prospects cannot yet be attributed to AI, so job searches are best built on skills that can be acquired.
- job seeker
- The study does not confirm mass displacement by AI, but researchers and trade outlets say the effect may still appear later.
- HR professional
- Entry-level hiring plans are better based on facts: an AI effect cannot yet be detected in the aggregate data.
- manager
- Entry-level headcount planning should not be scaled back by citing AI, as the current data give no grounds for it.
Sources
- Is AI killing jobs for college grads? Not yet, new study says.the washington post · Sep 28, 2026
- AI exposure is already affecting college graduate's first jobs and pay, US study findstheprint.in · Sep 29, 2026
- Is AI killing jobs for college grads? Not yet, new study says — and more UCLA media | UCLAnewsroom.ucla.edu · Sep 29, 2026
- The Early Impacts of AI on Employment among Recent College Graduates | NBERnber.org · Sep 28, 2026
- Diggdigg.com · Sep 28, 2026
- New data suggests recent grads aren't being hit by AI effect on hiring — but for how long? | TechRadartechradar.com · Sep 28, 2026
- 7.3% unemployment among new graduates... is AI the cause? - Jordan News | Latest News from Jordan, MENAjordannews.jo · Sep 28, 2026
- AI Has Yet to Cause a Spike in Unemployment Among Young Graduatesuniversityherald.com · Sep 29, 2026
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